MLB · resolved market
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f9e47637344cf48fc882e379e1e565f4474e8161b6fb1f608157913786c9b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 23c | 6,346$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.56 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,995$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 15c | 4,662$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.29 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 22c | 4,357$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.69 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…ee7abacked Yes | 21c | 4,199$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 24c | 4,094$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 78c | 2,487$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.23 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 24c | 2,108$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…f7d3backed Yes | 22c | 1,786$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.36 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…2411backed Yes | 24c | 1,473$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.83 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 80c | 1,444$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.64 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Yes | 19c | 1,055$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 17c | 1,007$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 12c | 931$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed No | 70c | 821.53$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 76c | 769.5$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes | 20c | 751$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Yes | 24c | 669.83$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 17c | 601.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 26c | 595.48$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 25c | 587.5$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 9c | 552.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 11c | 401.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 72c | 371.5$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 78c | 331.36$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 300$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 282$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 252$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 77c | 250.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 23c | 209.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…2930backed Yes | 23c | 190.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 74c | 160.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 157.02$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x752f…9332backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 76c | 142.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…d44dbacked Yes | 25c | 129.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 78c | 120.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 15c | 119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…7602backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes | 11c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…38c4backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 76c | 87.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked No | 78c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…fb44backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb489…1995backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 76c | 37.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…be0cbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 76c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…babcbacked No | 76c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 American League Championship?this page
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 American League Championship?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.