TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,895,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,821,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,895,703 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x353a…73bfbacked Yes7c54,000$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1607…9d6dbacked Yes9c54,000$4,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,59010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b71…b2afbacked Yes7c53,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17c…ae07backed Yes6c53,000$3,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,07410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004f…99d0backed Yes7c53,000$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,55110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b3…a65dbacked Yes4c52,000$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,23610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes4c46,617$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.567532%24 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes2c36,742$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.9481846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa78e…371fbacked Yes4c35,602$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes5c35,374$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.09313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-65.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes8c32,822$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.282934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes3c28,000$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes7c16,597$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.1511441.2%47 W · 67 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5437…051dbacked Yes8c14,014$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes0c14,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.351,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6eb…51e9backed Yes4c13,543$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.571225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes7c12,000$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.64911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ec…7cd3backed Yes7c10,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480f…0905backed Yes5c8,625$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…1017backed Yes2c8,408$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes6c8,099$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.538445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdeb…22dbbacked Yes4c6,492$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1290…5269backed Yes5c5,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes7c5,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.951811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8da…8966backed Yes4c4,814$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc9…2c38backed Yes7c4,441$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-90.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe30e…df18backed Yes7c4,333$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.94156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa117…1aa9backed Yes7c4,327$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.76911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x242c…1c75backed Yes3c4,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c9…271bbacked Yes4c3,971$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8210744.9%48 W · 59 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes3c3,786$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.473743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Yes8c3,514$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6117448.9%85 W · 89 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…557abacked Yes7c3,426$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes7c3,315$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.73185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes7c3,279$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23515236.2%55 W · 97 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Yes5c3,246$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…f360backed Yes7c3,189$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3c…763abacked Yes2c3,062$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b8…d9f5backed Yes6c3,038$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Yes7c2,997$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2132343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9037…1621backed Yes2c2,733$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe91a…088fbacked Yes8c2,674$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa728…5a45backed Yes4c2,632$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes1c2,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0059…f33fbacked Yes8c2,545$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x624a…5295backed Yes7c2,506$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes6c2,390$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.321216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,259$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8722516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8272…541dbacked Yes7c2,250$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd468…9472backed Yes1c2,220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c65…8291backed Yes5c2,178$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.460%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes4c2,141$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.753225%8 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes8c2,119$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.4210739.3%42 W · 65 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f03…b69abacked Yes7c2,111$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.787516%12 W · 63 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e5b…766dbacked Yes3c2,111$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.043026.7%8 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a95…7274backed Yes5c2,099$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0696…41adbacked Yes4c2,070$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes2c2,060$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.19530%0 W · 53 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes6c2,037$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Yes5c2,008$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006437.5%24 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7268…c903backed Yes7c2,004$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed Yes6c2,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7238…cbc1backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-71%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes1c2,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116126.2%16 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed Yes7c1,939$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9661…ca6fbacked Yes4c1,900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bef…3d42backed Yes4c1,900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb171…61bebacked Yes4c1,900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed08…15a9backed Yes4c1,900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c1…e105backed Yes4c1,900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1290…137ebacked Yes4c1,900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66a…0b3ebacked Yes4c1,900$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2910…cbe5backed Yes4c1,900$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2467…1405backed Yes4c1,900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7381…5b63backed Yes7c1,895$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2860042.8%257 W · 343 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes6c1,848$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.71180%0 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes3c1,800$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.62626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes3c1,764$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5401…aeaabacked Yes9c1,685$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c1,652$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.82234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-91.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…7ebbbacked Yes5c1,603$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes6c1,569$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes6c1,557$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8126547.5%126 W · 139 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c1,406$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.996613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8992…2dcfbacked Yes1c1,377$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206850%34 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf0…6215backed Yes6c1,373$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.251010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes9c1,372$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.428350.6%42 W · 41 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes7c1,347$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.51128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-89.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes3c1,300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b89…53c9backed Yes3c1,270$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-65.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x47e0…75e4backed Yes3c1,268$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc981…e26dbacked Yes7c1,256$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6d…8b10backed Yes5c1,253$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7007…00aabacked Yes8c1,250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes8c1,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4315431.8%49 W · 105 L-12.4wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes3c1,198$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018136.5%66 W · 115 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes1c1,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…ab53backed Yes6c1,100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes7c1,096$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.821020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+48.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.