AI · resolved market

Will Timothée Chalamet be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe6ba909b49ecc4fcfaca57db4c14715b73c3d9e70cadc0fe7a463f00ab2d18

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 4, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $128,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,504 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes	1c	39,125$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.21	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-65%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,893$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes	0c	3,800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c3c…b4ecbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	2c	1,309$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	267	4.9%13 W · 254 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a3…2a32backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.39	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+3.5wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	6c	781.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	4c	718.36$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	150	2.7%4 W · 146 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	2c	640.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Timothée Chalamet be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event