TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Pedro Pascal be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,165
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,165 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c11,651$17 inLost-$16.65113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,899$30 inLost-$29.711,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes21c2,003$427 inLost-$427.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8c3c…b4ecbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost-$12180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes11c1,522$163 inLost-$162.567636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c1,507$51 inLost-$50.6445738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes5c1,175$60 inLost-$60160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c97…3b0ebacked Yes4c1,138$50 inLost-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-81.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes14c1,100$158 inLost-$1581315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-79.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes11c1,086$122 inLost-$121.658122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c1,034$44 inLost-$43.942674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d7…60e5backed Yes2c965.26$20 inLost-$19.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-73.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes2c953.95$17 inLost-$17.3880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ea…4e95backed Yes2c730.59$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes9c435.54$37 inLost-$37.212317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+478.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa440…a2d1backed Yes10c382$37 inLost-$36.6880%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c294.11$50 inLost-$49.9447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c218.55$13 inLost-$12.531502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes18c95.33$17 inLost-$16.684447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No70c69.52$49 inWon+$20.923060%18 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56c6…5b68backed No78c50$39 inWon+$11.1977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+78.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.