Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe327d3b5e11ed5be58ee2f9c24778018af911ea4003a64749f9439c642d0f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked No | 21c | 48,052$10,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,090.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…aed5backed Yes | 79c | 48,052$37,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,090.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…774ebacked Yes | 73c | 31,588$23,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,528.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…41d9backed No | 27c | 31,588$8,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,528.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…dcd8backed No | 1c | 5,872$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a7…da75backed Yes | 77c | 5,502$4,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 80c | 3,420$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.68 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 36c | 2,729$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.85 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 11c | 2,456$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 22c | 1,555$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 61c | 1,325$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.19 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 74c | 1,264$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.04 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…56eebacked Yes | 74c | 1,173$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 21c | 747.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 16c | 651.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.19 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 32c | 597.65$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.83 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 520.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.01 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 72c | 499.97$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 456.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 452.82$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 79c | 349.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 27c | 346.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.91 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 317.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 13c | 305.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.57 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 75c | 267.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 27c | 263.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…93e3backed No | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked No | 46c | 247.48$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 79c | 244.34$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 74c | 230.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 80c | 224.58$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 56c | 201.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 10c | 199.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…ee3abacked Yes | 76c | 196.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 26c | 196.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 23c | 186.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.49 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 19c | 183.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked No | 22c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 25c | 172.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 25c | 166.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 77c | 160$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…2b77backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 78c | 123$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…77e9backed No | 19c | 119.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 76c | 100.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…dba0backed Yes | 76c | 98.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed No | 21c | 95.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…67cabacked No | 19c | 94.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c257backed No | 18c | 94.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2385…e128backed No | 20c | 88.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…9709backed No | 69c | 79.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…dcc9backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…3403backed No | 22c | 73.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…351dbacked No | 19c | 72.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229f…3036backed Yes | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…404fbacked No | 21c | 58.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 27c | 58.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…0201backed Yes | 80c | 55.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…7505backed No | 21c | 54.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed No | 28c | 54.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…7d50backed No | 23c | 54.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 26c | 51.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9810…4925backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf746…614abacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…fb31backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cc…a7a0backed No | 23c | 43.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…9bbbbacked No | 28c | 42.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…7ea2backed Yes | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 40.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…a403backed Yes | 73c | 39.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ed…f5eabacked Yes | 73c | 38.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…67d9backed Yes | 80c | 38.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…b3bfbacked Yes | 79c | 38.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…5a48backed No | 28c | 36.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 77c | 33.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84be…a72cbacked Yes | 80c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…36b5backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 79c | 29.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4748…d016backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 78c | 21.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…e795backed Yes | 77c | 21.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501a…a03bbacked Yes | 75c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…b06cbacked Yes | 70c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186e…fcf0backed Yes | 73c | 15.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…b881backed Yes | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.