TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$237,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeaf6…a3eabacked No21c48,052$10,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,090.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b39…aed5backed Yes79c48,052$37,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,090.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce2…774ebacked Yes73c31,588$23,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,528.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+102.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…41d9backed No27c31,588$8,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,528.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a3…dcd8backed No1c5,872$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a7…da75backed Yes77c5,502$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes80c3,420$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.6812649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No36c2,729$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.8510834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No11c2,456$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No22c1,555$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.17250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed Yes61c1,325$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.194129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes74c1,264$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.0437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e68…56eebacked Yes74c1,173$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No21c747.3$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.483859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes16c651.43$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.199846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes61c600$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2348150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes32c597.65$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.834314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes23c520.39$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.0128320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes72c499.97$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9915238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c456.27$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No28c452.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.711,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed Yes79c349.99$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes27c346.31$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.912733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No20c317.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5356733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes13c305.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.579426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9473…3b20backed No79c300$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.76250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes75c267.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.333138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No27c263.46$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.093312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdd76…93e3backed No19c260$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No46c247.48$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.233221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0643…7b30backed Yes79c244.34$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.793545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes74c230.71$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.986041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed Yes80c224.58$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.92825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes56c201.35$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.9423543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No10c199.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0110244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c6c…ee3abacked Yes76c196.89$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No26c196.05$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes23c186.69$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.4923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No19c183.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.417713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…be8cbacked No22c177.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No25c172.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No25c166.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.973917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No77c160$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.967834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…2b77backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+102.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes78c123$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.42347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4f…77e9backed No19c119.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.22250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec4c…6994backed Yes76c100.87$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.211625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.27428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf82…cdd7backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…591abacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3482…dba0backed Yes76c98.95$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed No21c95.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…67cabacked No19c94.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b26…c257backed No18c94.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked No22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2385…e128backed No20c88.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf2…9709backed No69c79.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8928…dcc9backed No27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bea…3403backed No22c73.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f75…351dbacked No19c72.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x229f…3036backed Yes79c71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+123.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes78c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.35149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes23c60$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.218914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abe…404fbacked No21c58.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No27c58.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6913167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…0201backed Yes80c55.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380a…7505backed No21c54.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed No28c54.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152532%8 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa724…7d50backed No23c54.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No26c51.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.148256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9810…4925backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf746…614abacked No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f86…fb31backed No28c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03cc…a7a0backed No23c43.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e4…9bbbbacked No28c42.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes79c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcecd…7ea2backed Yes73c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c40.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0f…a403backed Yes73c39.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ed…f5eabacked Yes73c38.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e67…67d9backed Yes80c38.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d6…b3bfbacked Yes79c38.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…5a48backed No28c36.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes77c33.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7912533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84be…a72cbacked Yes80c32.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8970…36b5backed Yes74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No79c29.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.433748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4748…d016backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+101.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5fa…9795backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes78c21.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.746442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…e795backed Yes77c21.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x501a…a03bbacked Yes75c20.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…7e3bbacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-65.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x692a…b06cbacked Yes70c19.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186e…fcf0backed Yes73c15.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Yes80c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.83551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+59.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e08…b881backed Yes79c13.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.