Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef0d44595437bd3acf612ca25a3d60456b8f89fd812a96785088169e61a705b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $438,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $318,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 37,369$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 36,412$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.76 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,425$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1e…7ba5backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fea…c98fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 5,581$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.14 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 2c | 5,122$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b8…71c4backed Yes | 0c | 5,025$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d2f2backed Yes | 13c | 4,188$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,087$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 6c | 3,080$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 3c | 3,002$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 14c | 2,750$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.51 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 2,349$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 9c | 1,349$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,149$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.27 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…45d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,056$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 12c | 1,008$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…48f0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 18c | 907.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 4c | 860$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 12c | 806.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 8c | 763.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 750.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…d879backed Yes | 17c | 676.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 8c | 563.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…7485backed Yes | 10c | 560.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b5…4b28backed Yes | 17c | 485.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 5c | 460.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed No | 77c | 405$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 9c | 378.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 375.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked Yes | 8c | 342.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 6c | 323.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…c62abacked Yes | 12c | 310$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…2feabacked Yes | 13c | 304.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked Yes | 7c | 303.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…f218backed Yes | 11c | 286.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 10c | 256.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 7c | 224.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 19c | 201.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 11c | 195.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…1635backed Yes | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 7c | 164.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…e1f6backed Yes | 20c | 148.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…0cc2backed Yes | 9c | 138$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 137.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…acaebacked Yes | 22c | 133.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 128.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 13c | 128.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…a223backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed Yes | 19c | 115.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…6f06backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 13c | 95.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…8c0abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…3014backed Yes | 13c | 77.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9421…8747backed Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.