Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c598935b6205562e27162c7e116724a88dfa2e44ea509d1106a0752b32f4472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 7c | 10,769$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 0c | 6,616$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 3c | 4,487$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 5c | 2,774$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 5c | 1,516$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,364$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 5c | 1,294$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,145$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,033$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 609$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 516.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 7c | 430.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 12c | 413$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 11c | 250.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 238.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 236.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed Yes | 10c | 206.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 180$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 9c | 107.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…ee3abacked Yes | 14c | 101.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed Yes | 31c | 79.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 50.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b90…a0c7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.