Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeba66cbb3665eb0ba5ccb54bdc54c3e03bc256997c7835fa109e3fafb415cb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 7c | 10,522$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.93 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes | 2c | 8,909$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 54c | 6,314$3,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,877.35 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 30c | 5,223$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.82 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 8c | 5,061$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 33c | 5,028$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,558$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.53 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 12c | 3,482$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.59 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,208$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 76c | 3,124$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.1 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 3,011$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e68…56eebacked Yes | 32c | 2,494$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 2,473$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.73 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 51c | 2,230$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,996$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.49 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed Yes | 44c | 1,641$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.13 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 76c | 1,605$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.69 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,557$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.85 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3c…7371backed Yes | 23c | 1,554$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed Yes | 15c | 1,538$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 7c | 1,499$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,341$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,296$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 64c | 1,084$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.33 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…b5d2backed Yes | 14c | 1,073$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.94 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f6…4f56backed Yes | 9c | 940.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 8c | 926.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 71c | 810.79$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…13eebacked Yes | 14c | 717.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 23c | 715.34$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.42 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 9c | 676.86$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 23c | 673.76$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 24c | 671.85$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.46 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 30c | 644$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.79 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 619.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 19c | 575$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 75c | 480.48$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked Yes | 23c | 450.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 438.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…45d5backed Yes | 13c | 400.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 392.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 10c | 359.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 331.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…be6fbacked Yes | 13c | 294.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ba5backed Yes | 5c | 280.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…eb4cbacked Yes | 13c | 273.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked Yes | 7c | 267.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3482…dba0backed Yes | 33c | 248.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 67c | 225.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 6c | 224.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 219.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 5c | 213.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…999dbacked Yes | 5c | 207.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…7820backed Yes | 10c | 202$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…9d53backed Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…68e5backed Yes | 9c | 171.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…9a30backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 78c | 159.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 17c | 154$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 133.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…0939backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +135%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 11c | 120.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…8194backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…6641backed Yes | 11c | 99.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746c…d4f0backed Yes | 16c | 95.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692a…b06cbacked Yes | 41c | 92.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc96…71b6backed Yes | 34c | 91.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…51edbacked Yes | 62c | 81.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…fd83backed Yes | 25c | 81.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab0…5a7ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…daa8backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked Yes | 23c | 54.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes | 38c | 42.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 57c | 27.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 1,250-1,499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon less than 250 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.