TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon 750-999 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,749,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$548,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,749,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 584 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf17…a53cbacked Yes0c50,698$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0211…8073backed Yes1c50,100$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c43,833$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.522400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad16…e610backed Yes0c31,623$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes0c23,292$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.779426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c19,300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.11580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9b…dfcdbacked Yes0c16,394$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a7d…1a19backed Yes0c16,085$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfee…d0e3backed Yes0c16,050$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e33…67fabacked Yes0c15,975$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5af4…899dbacked Yes0c15,935$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c51…637dbacked Yes0c15,905$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c15,905$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c62…0d49backed Yes0c15,850$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe10b…ad90backed Yes0c15,825$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cd…5813backed Yes0c15,795$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96dc…b066backed Yes0c15,790$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde82…c92cbacked Yes0c15,755$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc730…553fbacked Yes0c15,660$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd899…3c3dbacked Yes0c15,590$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c63…4e34backed Yes0c15,590$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f9…ea71backed Yes0c15,545$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb680…8dd9backed Yes0c15,530$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c2…0bc0backed Yes0c15,525$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x720a…70b6backed Yes0c15,520$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7990…1140backed Yes0c15,390$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fc…491abacked Yes0c15,285$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3963…0174backed Yes0c15,255$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f0b…9642backed Yes0c15,155$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes0c15,049$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.055928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf676…e0ccbacked Yes0c15,025$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44c…3581backed Yes0c11,200$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c1…45abbacked Yes1c10,971$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea3…e2b0backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x601f…6dbebacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a9…3533backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…cb64backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd2…8affbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…64ffbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c1…36a8backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbd…f436backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad6…ac3dbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd0…3ac2backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x891c…93fbbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28fb…f656backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b72…044dbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc19…d3bfbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd98…903bbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d42…4d58backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c6…8932backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…69d8backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47cc…5e47backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x483c…91ccbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbd1…9705backed Yes0c10,800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d8…e61cbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bd…4409backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3421…31e3backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0e4…7754backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe698…eb0abacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd05…b572backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d8e…7dd9backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef5…c692backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc419…89f2backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabea…9c61backed Yes0c10,800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…8942backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692a…1452backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ed…9f66backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedaf…07f7backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80db…d82bbacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…5e03backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81d3…e9c2backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…c3f8backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b80…521abacked Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949c…a0e7backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc0…eb16backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c09…c727backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9165…0932backed Yes0c10,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b1…dd17backed Yes0c10,794$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816d…1f3ebacked Yes1c10,273$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b67…23e8backed Yes1c10,106$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b8…8eebbacked Yes1c9,924$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd7…90b4backed Yes1c9,924$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b81…1cf4backed Yes0c9,735$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c2…ed34backed Yes1c9,546$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc89f…e80ebacked Yes0c9,546$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdead…5780backed Yes0c9,546$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc493…9ac3backed Yes0c9,546$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x608c…eb68backed Yes0c9,546$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da7…8824backed Yes1c9,546$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea1…6707backed Yes0c9,546$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5148…2be0backed Yes0c9,546$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa331…f389backed Yes0c9,356$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f2…4954backed Yes0c9,356$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb192…fa58backed Yes0c9,356$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0c…dfc2backed Yes1c9,323$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487a…8785backed Yes1c9,257$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac0…6432backed Yes1c9,223$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59b…81e9backed Yes1c9,223$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad59…4404backed Yes1c9,223$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e70…5f80backed Yes1c9,223$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.