Us Politics · resolved market
Trump negative approval before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc9a6cb046bcf3945df8e8a88a1e3a646783a186bf615c2a57b28286f81ae7b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 10,910$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 5,109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 4,786$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.66 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed No | 22c | 3,997$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.62 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 8c | 3,800$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.31 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 1c | 3,357$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 8c | 2,619$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.11 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes | 63c | 1,986$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed No | 33c | 1,915$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 8c | 1,730$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 3c | 1,418$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 78c | 1,283$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.06 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked No | 8c | 1,161$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 65c | 1,134$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.9 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 34c | 1,107$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.67 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 68c | 1,100$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 3c | 942$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 864$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 10c | 763.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…79eebacked Yes | 66c | 660.62$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 6c | 622.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 8c | 594.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked No | 19c | 494.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 34c | 477.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.38 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 35c | 430.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…2a08backed No | 4c | 367.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 5c | 341.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 312.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 58c | 300.01$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.04 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 50c | 298.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 34c | 294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 79c | 280.11$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed No | 11c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 224.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…64a7backed Yes | 50c | 220.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 65c | 207.26$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdc…0771backed No | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 64c | 203.58$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 21c | 196.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 53c | 128.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed No | 16c | 124.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 123.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 30c | 120.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 67c | 118.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518a…576bbacked No | 40c | 117.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 101.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 50c | 100.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded0…4319backed No | 20c | 100.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked No | 29c | 87.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…79c1backed No | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…e263backed Yes | 61c | 83.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…7c9ebacked Yes | 61c | 83.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 62c | 80.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked No | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 44c | 70.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 29c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…7d81backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…1282backed No | 42c | 56.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed No | 43c | 54.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d05…3407backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 61c | 49.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1779backed No | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c68…ec39backed Yes | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked No | 37c | 39.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 64c | 32.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…63cabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…39cfbacked Yes | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee5…3528backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…c964backed Yes | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…2b2cbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.