Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump invoke Alien Enemies Act for deportations to Guantanamo?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47d0458159ae16b8c7b66181d7b238da2e127178703e509bef70d96bb1916beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fea…d383backed No | 8c | 1,097$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 34c | 748.4$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.43 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 63c | 542.34$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…7775backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a991backed No | 72c | 411.57$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 61c | 400$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 242.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.14 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…3870backed Yes | 37c | 232.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 216.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 37c | 210$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 61c | 207$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 186.65$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 181.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…cb4cbacked No | 30c | 181.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 75c | 142.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 37c | 139.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 25c | 133.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 16c | 128.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 69c | 116.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb19…21e4backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…0307backed No | 54c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 54c | 83.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 19c | 71.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed No | 67c | 55.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 38c | 54.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 47.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…4942backed No | 73c | 45.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 65c | 41.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 26c | 38.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c61…6fe2backed Yes | 61c | 35.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 65c | 32.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b1…5037backed Yes | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…c22bbacked No | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed No | 76c | 21.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…6641backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.