Us Politics · resolved market

FL-6 special election: Weil (D) vs. Fine (R)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x644b3087b681b7c398235bf52cd365a7ec217cd8b5d35315b8cf3d4e1a8a047f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Fineof Weil, Fine
Resolved: Apr 2, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $401,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $393,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,962 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed Weil	7c	88,160$5,751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,751.45	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed Weil	4c	18,650$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.95	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Weil	11c	16,380$1,748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,747.88	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Weil	6c	15,691$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,018.19	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	+5.9wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Weil	13c	14,144$1,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,806.55	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Weil	1c	10,705$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.84	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Weil	6c	10,616$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686.01	88	20.5%18 W · 70 L	-7.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Weil	1c	10,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Weil	10c	8,307$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.45	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Weil	9c	7,000$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…353ebacked Weil	3c	5,705$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Weil	7c	4,730$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.62	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Weil	7c	4,446$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	93	1.1%1 W · 92 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked Weil	10c	4,334$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7164…e7e5backed Weil	1c	3,752$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ae…6374backed Weil	5c	2,534$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.59	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked Weil	3c	2,500$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	13cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ae…52edbacked Weil	13c	2,346$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.27	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4baf…b22bbacked Weil	10c	2,131$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.99	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1f…ec73backed Weil	8c	2,001$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.1	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Weil	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Weil	4c	1,706$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Weil	12c	1,600$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Weil	7c	1,389$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	59	42.4%25 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Weil	3c	1,361$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.71	115	38.3%44 W · 71 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Weil	7c	1,355$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.7	60	10%6 W · 54 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Weil	10c	1,224$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.71	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Weil	1c	1,096$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	91	29.7%27 W · 64 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Weil	6c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Weil	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7177…1252backed Weil	13c	933.08$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.37	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4180…6041backed Weil	9c	910$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Weil	10c	861$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.08	113	47.8%54 W · 59 L	+10.8wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1df…482bbacked Weil	10c	857.9$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Weil	4c	708.05$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.05	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Weil	3c	674.17$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	148	19.6%29 W · 119 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Weil	8c	622$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.15	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked Weil	10c	500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.8	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea1…fd44backed Weil	7c	485$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde9d…07c0backed Weil	9c	481.93$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3233…030bbacked Weil	9c	470.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Weil	7c	438.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c2…e603backed Weil	7c	415$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Weil	8c	362$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.86	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Weil	12c	333$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	93	47.3%44 W · 49 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e2…2f3ebacked Weil	11c	332.6$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Weil	10c	324.62$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.03	326	26.4%86 W · 240 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Weil	6c	323$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed Weil	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf392…df89backed Weil	13c	265.12$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-78%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Weil	10c	171$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Weil	8c	141.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	215	4.2%9 W · 206 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x408b…1ffebacked Weil	9c	135.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b10…068dbacked Weil	13c	120$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Weil	9c	119.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FL-6 special election: Weil (D) vs. Fine (R)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market