Movies · resolved market
Will "The Substance" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee3cda6b0de9439e515918725bf79fe10bf0d15cfce5307b6212d5d44473862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 11c | 8,700$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.55 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 13c | 1,042$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 11c | 686.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 614.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 8c | 539.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 8c | 275.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Yes | 80c | 217.4$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 9c | 213$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 183.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 7c | 161$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…eec8backed No | 11c | 148$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Substance" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Different Man" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.