Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66fbc86eed825d72396fab44e6f89c2f0a05140027102667ae6a06bf8bab2baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 6c | 810.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 5c | 806.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.27 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 672.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 517.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.94 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +293.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 20c | 375.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 18c | 350.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.84 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 48c | 271.65$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 31c | 239.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 17c | 200.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.7 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 45c | 167.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 23c | 163.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 80c | 153.98$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 74c | 137.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…9621backed No | 22c | 137.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 9c | 114.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 67c | 103.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d2f2backed No | 21c | 96.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked No | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b77…a63ebacked No | 19c | 89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…b25dbacked No | 19c | 85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202a…a09dbacked No | 21c | 84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 15c | 76.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 57c | 73.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…7a79backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…696bbacked No | 19c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…fd6bbacked No | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked No | 23c | 45.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 68c | 35.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 61c | 27.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…bbebbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d8…2099backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…db67backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…5c50backed Yes | 79c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722b…2b97backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…8a32backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a25…b5abbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dictator" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.