TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,514

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,802 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes2c776.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.532528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes72c625.33$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No35c403.93$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.625127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No30c331.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c299.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfd1…cfe4backed No50c298.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.682100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+62.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb05…12f8backed No45c250.32$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.921973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+84%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed Yes66c220.21$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1862…734abacked Yes69c216.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed No28c202$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes73c150$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.751625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x594e…9621backed No27c147.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3c…3e51backed No30c140.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…a5fabacked Yes57c140$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes72c137.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes69c110$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.453348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5177…a0f6backed Yes72c105$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.11040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No26c95.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.311850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe359…2feabacked No23c91$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes53c75.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes59c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.64551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes71c72.14$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.945550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e15…729abacked Yes77c70$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes49c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe983…31ebbacked No30c66.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed No45c65.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+93.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…d38bbacked Yes66c60.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8860%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No31c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.62740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+44.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No30c55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No26c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.75541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No26c54.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.642564%16 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+54.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8021…3c44backed No28c53.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.850%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes56c49.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…7a79backed Yes68c47.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.98757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe7…9c6dbacked No43c46.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked No45c44.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.682240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes52c41.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3310812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No60c37.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.826665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf369…acb6backed Yes70c35.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xabe7…c8fcbacked No43c31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf54b…0ee4backed Yes71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f93…29b3backed Yes57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes55c23.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.913366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes69c22.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.631457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0f…216ebacked Yes77c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes73c20.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x280e…a5dabacked Yes57c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes61c18.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c98…280fbacked Yes72c17.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.