Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c80acf0f799292313efc6a705afa3044f72d88cc55f0a44dfb4eaaacdb56dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 776.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 72c | 625.33$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 35c | 403.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.62 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 30c | 331.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 299.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…cfe4backed No | 50c | 298.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 45c | 250.32$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 66c | 220.21$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…734abacked Yes | 69c | 216.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 28c | 202$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 73c | 150$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…9621backed No | 27c | 147.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…3e51backed No | 30c | 140.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…a5fabacked Yes | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 72c | 137.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed Yes | 72c | 105$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 26c | 95.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe359…2feabacked No | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 53c | 75.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 59c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 71c | 72.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e15…729abacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…31ebbacked No | 30c | 66.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed No | 45c | 65.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…d38bbacked Yes | 66c | 60.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 26c | 54.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…3c44backed No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 56c | 49.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…7a79backed Yes | 68c | 47.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9c6dbacked No | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 45c | 44.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 52c | 41.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 37.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…acb6backed Yes | 70c | 35.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabe7…c8fcbacked No | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…0ee4backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…29b3backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 55c | 23.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 69c | 22.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0f…216ebacked Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…a5dabacked Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 61c | 18.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 72c | 17.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dictator" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.