Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc883936efbcbcae81784a527651a8028a86b207eeb5fb41d9e0eb7e2bf33062

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,379 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No	72c	200$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-38.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	27c	177.83$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3685…abf2backed Yes	24c	150$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes	24c	149.4$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No	74c	135.54$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.54	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfe…5796backed Yes	20c	127.49$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed No	72c	124$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed Yes	25c	109.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6af…d38bbacked Yes	29c	102.9$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.46	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe828…3dd4backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	23c	83.89$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No	79c	83.11$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8771…1a60backed Yes	27c	76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	41cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	25c	74.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No	67c	60.83$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf16…7b41backed No	70c	56$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170c…bd6ebacked Yes	30c	53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4670…5cc9backed Yes	30c	49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24b…e841backed Yes	30c	42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed7…8ad2backed No	70c	24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8628…e88cbacked No	70c	22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf0…6392backed No	70c	21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b9…e251backed No	70c	21$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8021…3c44backed No	73c	20.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event