Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82ddf484e7ddad6038dfd61a6fc3af8a9990baea6619a6abb3ca059c3fa36163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 74c | 1,385$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 21c | 1,011$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 29c | 700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 37c | 660$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 31c | 342.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.98 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 80c | 313.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 50c | 236.28$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 195.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.31 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 29c | 172.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 28c | 135.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…52c7backed Yes | 64c | 132.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked No | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 34c | 124.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…78b8backed No | 29c | 114$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 21c | 100.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…839abacked No | 20c | 98.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…4908backed No | 20c | 95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…19d7backed Yes | 71c | 83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…1a60backed No | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 26c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 22c | 59.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 57.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 68c | 52.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 54c | 50.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ea…0451backed No | 41c | 49.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176d…123abacked No | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…acb6backed Yes | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb6…10d5backed Yes | 80c | 31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…633bbacked Yes | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…7bc7backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa11…6c6ebacked Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked Yes | 77c | 20.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…6b49backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…d2b0backed Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fffebacked Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…14f5backed Yes | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…1836backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dictator" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.