Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacca55890f7b250ff8e515bb50ba2cbefd96d7dc32fab8d6b056b7cbd2f2bcd6

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,291
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,291 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	71c	597.99$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.38	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes	27c	555.17$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed Yes	30c	391.17$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.29	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No	76c	339.33$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.59	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+90.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	77c	305.61$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.94	44	50%22 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe828…3dd4backed Yes	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes	27c	202.43$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.49	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	25c	199.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-38.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	74c	185$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.8	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No	74c	134.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.68	45	62.2%28 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked No	74c	134.3$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.3	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	21c	118.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No	73c	109.73$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.73	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	71cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No	68c	95$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes	28c	90$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5824…9b7abacked Yes	25c	90$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No	64c	84.27$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.04	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	79c	60$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.39	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f86…7b89backed Yes	26c	54.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes	43c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	49c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes	25c	49.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d1…6317backed Yes	28c	42.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed No	51c	35.36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.32	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf54b…0ee4backed No	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed No	52c	19.99$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No	74c	19.23$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed No	73c	18.57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.03	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event