Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44693da480fc6e613f152da332dedca79748a1402c7f92674c1ef65fa593233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…7a79backed Yes | 41c | 778.78$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 43c | 574$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 46c | 373.38$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 63c | 351.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…9621backed No | 55c | 312.2$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 77c | 306.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 57c | 295.79$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 41cpaid | +65%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 29c | 277.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 266.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 263$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 43c | 231$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 41c | 225$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 60c | 222.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 180.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 180$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…8545backed No | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 58c | 171.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 64c | 128.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 46c | 106$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…a0f6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 66c | 91.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…d38bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 73.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 34c | 63.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 58c | 62.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…3ffebacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked Yes | 51c | 55.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 45c | 48.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 49c | 46.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed No | 53c | 41.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf369…acb6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d7…dee1backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…f7f2backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…1018backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…1b02backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…3c1ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…3c44backed No | 57c | 26.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked No | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…a5fabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dictator" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.