Ukraine · resolved market
Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x986004e356712252d29528d9c9a506961d916f85ca7256c609cac227433ed212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,154$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.08 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 78c | 687.6$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 79c | 572.16$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes | 36c | 520$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 29c | 363.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…f9dbbacked Yes | 36c | 279.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked No | 70c | 260.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 12c | 242.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 20c | 167.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 60c | 164.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 24c | 148.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 65c | 140.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 56c | 126.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 12c | 109.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 11c | 107.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed Yes | 13c | 102.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked No | 80c | 91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 33c | 76.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 18c | 71.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…6317backed Yes | 43c | 58.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…fad5backed Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…6039backed Yes | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…2e88backed No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…2a89backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +192.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…676bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?this page
- Will Donald Trump say "Beautiful" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Can you imagine" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crimea" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DEI" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Dictator" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "US" or "United States" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
- Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.