TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Horrible" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb857…311ebacked Yes35c1,220$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No74c1,095$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.981656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f32…6fe5backed No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes32c861.41$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No66c470.64$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.61145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes15c449.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.43729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c81…c62dbacked Yes34c446.36$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No68c424.14$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.631457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No67c315.84$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.868247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.512830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd452…839abacked Yes36c278.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8bf…c4fabacked Yes10c274.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74da…1ba5backed Yes33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes38c250$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x608b…6e47backed No65c220$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.511822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No67c191.43$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.023348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c178.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes18c159.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.185127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-70.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No68c132.35$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.35366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-5.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes23c127.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.628725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No66c125.06$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.521850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No71c113.83$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.935550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c112.22$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3241736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcadb…2df0backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d9…c496backed Yes17c91.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No72c83.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.434562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed Yes32c62.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+60.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No78c61.56$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.43366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.61553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.172142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807f…bad6backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3856…c6d3backed Yes32c37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.12356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed No69c22.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.535541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x478d…5011backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8021…3c44backed No77c19.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+33.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No69c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.399734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f0…1071backed No68c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ab…a58fbacked No68c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.