Ukraine · resolved market

Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e47952b00385da3553383b94e934d50db29fe785d354418e387dff7a1ce3fdf

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 28, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,436
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,436 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	69c	800$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.92	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x594e…9621backed No	13c	586.61$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.35	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	34cpaid	+114.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No	12c	378.04$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.87	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+309.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No	44c	348.51$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.65	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb05…12f8backed No	20c	319.59$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+5.5wins	+0.29per pick	45cpaid	+84%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No	12c	300$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x23d0…620cbacked Yes	62c	279.97$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes	40c	249.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No	8c	241.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.78	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54b…0ee4backed Yes	32c	240$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed No	10c	205.98$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.73	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No	17c	203.73$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes	35c	200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe828…3dd4backed Yes	65c	200$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…77dfbacked No	13c	157$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.59	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.87per pick	13cpaid	+669.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No	12c	144.01$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.73	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	71c	120$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.35	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+8.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No	70c	112.84$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.55	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No	11c	112.08$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.75	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	11c	110$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.9	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x046e…200fbacked No	12c	102$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.76	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.88per pick	12cpaid	+733.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed No	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16a…3c93backed No	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.39per pick	45cpaid	+192.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cdf…95d2backed No	13c	87$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.69	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.87per pick	13cpaid	+669.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes	65c	82.82$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.23	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	66c	69.03$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.56	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed No	70c	57.14$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.14	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0516…dbc2backed Yes	79c	50.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Yes	75c	40$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes	60c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump say "Mineral" during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event