Weather · resolved market
Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78e302118fae27603c251cf31eff0b0c8fb1185533b7c4124984e663f4724c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Yes | 9c | 11,841$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 9,960$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…3c54backed Yes | 3c | 8,277$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 8,092$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,781$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.68 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…c3f0backed Yes | 3c | 3,104$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes | 8c | 2,460$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…d5cebacked Yes | 4c | 2,388$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x132d…9bbabacked Yes | 2c | 2,197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e5…b7e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,122$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 21c | 2,102$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0902…7752backed Yes | 1c | 2,084$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…6bf5backed Yes | 3c | 1,942$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 2c | 1,885$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…8b4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,833$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 12c | 1,564$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 5c | 1,411$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed Yes | 23c | 1,195$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked No | 78c | 1,037$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…3d51backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 74c | 810$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes | 3c | 807.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 25c | 619.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…c2f0backed Yes | 4c | 439.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…5487backed Yes | 26c | 377.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…0d99backed Yes | 3c | 312.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 12c | 157$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 76c | 136.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 10c | 135.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…f050backed No | 75c | 123.91$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…e6c9backed Yes | 26c | 115.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…2332backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…0b08backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 26c | 48.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…3ad6backed No | 74c | 36.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2e…3b1cbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.