Ukraine · resolved market
Zelenskyy puts on a suit by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a3bd7852f10810a6746c8e503a3edcaedf5985bea85afa1b714be3e98fa3b9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 4c | 20,038$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.67 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 14,283$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.99 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,314$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…8247backed Yes | 2c | 9,990$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 2c | 8,472$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 4c | 7,087$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.77 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…65ffbacked Yes | 2c | 4,360$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +675.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,359$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 4,242$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb4…49bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,317$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 2c | 3,230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,068$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d01…1708backed Yes | 2c | 2,061$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…45c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,041$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…9645backed Yes | 2c | 2,032$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,902$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd1…cf8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,764$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…c140backed Yes | 2c | 1,763$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…058dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,696$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7bddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,476$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…7dd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,449$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,266$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…abb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2271backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 1,105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…6debbacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…c22abacked Yes | 2c | 1,046$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8f…39fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…7045backed Yes | 3c | 1,003$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae48…d9b6backed Yes | 2c | 980.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…ca63backed Yes | 2c | 870.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e1…2edebacked Yes | 3c | 777.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 2c | 623.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…83f1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…c76ebacked Yes | 4c | 495$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 489$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 2c | 455.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…7c7cbacked Yes | 2c | 405.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…3808backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…8150backed Yes | 5c | 251.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 5c | 237.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed Yes | 17c | 190.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa3…ad2cbacked No | 80c | 70.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.