Movies · resolved market
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2fe47b4f5753ed6ce64491456e092a569d76dbb5d55220c464e9641881ac67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 25c | 3,838$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.5 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 28c | 2,236$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.93 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 9c | 1,816$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.68 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 7c | 1,212$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bf…7851backed No | 7c | 1,114$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 7c | 1,099$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 12c | 947.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 7c | 900$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 6c | 868$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 8c | 862.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 9c | 662.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 608.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed No | 7c | 588$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…2cd7backed No | 7c | 573.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 69c | 490.9$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.65 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 5c | 475$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 4c | 374.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 70c | 357$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 13c | 350.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 334.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 75c | 301.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 8c | 249.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…439bbacked No | 9c | 234.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 73c | 224$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 75c | 214.39$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 5c | 202.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 74c | 193.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x947b…a0d9backed No | 28c | 187.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 10c | 162.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…a80cbacked No | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 10c | 159.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 27c | 145.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…60c6backed No | 10c | 118.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e9…6371backed Yes | 73c | 107.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…b523backed No | 9c | 106.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 75c | 100.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 100.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…d7debacked No | 28c | 74.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…6c2abacked Yes | 73c | 74.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e57…85f5backed Yes | 73c | 74.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 26c | 54.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 74c | 52.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 75c | 43.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…e2b1backed Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.