Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump make English the national language?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4c440345b888c44c0a76e1c358f8e58909ae0ac5657766451631eb5c89b7c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 3,759$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.59 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 2c | 3,657$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 27c | 633.06$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.13 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…48b5backed Yes | 13c | 612$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 25c | 602.92$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.21 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 502.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 29c | 389.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.26 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…ae03backed Yes | 8c | 323.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed No | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 44c | 253.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 15c | 239.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 16c | 235$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed No | 16c | 225.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 10cpaid | +122%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…ed09backed Yes | 56c | 223.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 48c | 178.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 23c | 166.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…0f40backed Yes | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…b24dbacked No | 55c | 118.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 66c | 107.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 18c | 92.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…8018backed No | 34c | 88.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f6…e005backed Yes | 25c | 81.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eb3ebacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 64c | 77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 55c | 75.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…3da6backed No | 25c | 74.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…7b41backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…4259backed Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed No | 18c | 70.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +766.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 18c | 65.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 75c | 52.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…4de6backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…65c9backed No | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfff…7a8ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…ec2cbacked No | 80c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 56 | 73.2%41 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.