Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86d615cc19e752b444f5efa60b67418301ee138d6f436c01e096f3b25c882086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $983,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $870,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 71c | 88,805$63,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,663.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…8274backed No | 1c | 77,492$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…b512backed No | 49c | 46,554$22,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,633.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 12c | 45,009$5,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,214.18 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 79c | 37,476$29,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,899.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 8c | 31,354$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 15c | 28,053$4,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.35 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 5c | 26,066$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.83 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked No | 20c | 24,455$4,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,956.51 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 31c | 22,978$7,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,827.36 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 13c | 20,640$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.91 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 43c | 19,453$8,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,394.72 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Yes | 59c | 18,923$11,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,666.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…082abacked Yes | 78c | 16,613$12,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,711.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 29c | 15,711$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,546.79 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 55c | 15,305$8,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,873.22 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 15,245$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 29c | 11,522$3,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.23 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 74c | 11,291$8,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 11c | 10,706$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.03 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 10c | 7,915$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.77 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 1c | 7,222$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 25c | 6,491$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,626.39 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 31c | 6,144$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.63 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 27c | 5,942$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.76 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 12c | 5,557$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 69c | 5,395$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,681.97 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 16c | 5,249$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.02 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 20c | 5,135$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 11c | 5,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 75c | 4,115$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.76 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3979…f49ebacked No | 17c | 4,015$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 78c | 3,829$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 20c | 3,687$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.8 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No | 5c | 3,500$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 24c | 3,132$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.04 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…9fc2backed Yes | 78c | 2,720$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 14c | 2,549$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 7c | 2,210$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 4c | 2,100$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 18c | 2,000$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.49 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 77c | 1,770$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.74 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 33c | 1,764$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.26 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…398bbacked Yes | 63c | 1,733$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed No | 42c | 1,571$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,514$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.95 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,487$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…8227backed Yes | 60c | 1,430$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 62c | 1,325$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 11c | 1,153$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed No | 27c | 1,122$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…a1ebbacked Yes | 80c | 1,038$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked No | 5c | 1,037$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 79c | 987.34$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.34 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 932.51$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.21 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…2af2backed No | 54c | 926.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 20c | 920.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed Yes | 77c | 912.53$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.69 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 63c | 764.62$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.62 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 79c | 758.11$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.11 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 72c | 755.87$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 23c | 707.11$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…cea3backed Yes | 59c | 699.79$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 10c | 674.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 661.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…0cb9backed Yes | 78c | 603.53$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626c…12a6backed Yes | 64c | 585.43$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 60c | 549.06$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…393bbacked Yes | 80c | 533.9$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 21c | 510.68$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 78c | 500.8$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No | 24c | 500.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 56c | 500$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 34c | 500$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 18c | 459$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 57c | 455.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.95 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 44c | 449.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.57 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed No | 3c | 443.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 30c | 443.09$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 31c | 424.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5526…5f5cbacked Yes | 77c | 391.62$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 7c | 390.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…34b5backed No | 27c | 384.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…8072backed Yes | 58c | 362.99$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3b…dcddbacked No | 8c | 348.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 75c | 345.91$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes | 78c | 319.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 37c | 290.93$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 24c | 281.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 24c | 257.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 39c | 250.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 79c | 234.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed No | 24c | 200.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked No | 21c | 200.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.