TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$983,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$870,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes71c88,805$63,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,663.323839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aec…8274backed No1c77,492$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a6…b512backed No49c46,554$22,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,633.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No12c45,009$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.184522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked Yes79c37,476$29,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.181376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No8c31,354$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.981546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No15c28,053$4,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,193.3514135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No5c26,066$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.8341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No20c24,455$4,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,956.514314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes31c22,978$7,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,827.3612630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No13c20,640$2,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.913859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No43c19,453$8,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,394.727458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed Yes59c18,923$11,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,666.74450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe639…082abacked Yes78c16,613$12,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.33366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No29c15,711$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,546.796442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes55c15,305$8,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,873.227146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No0c15,245$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.29214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-79.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No29c11,522$3,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.236053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes74c11,291$8,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.442343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No11c10,706$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.0315032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No10c7,915$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.7713818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked No1c7,222$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No25c6,491$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.394938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No31c6,144$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.638150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No27c5,942$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.7610347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No12c5,557$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.346546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes69c5,395$3,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.9710056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No16c5,249$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.0221634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No20c5,135$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.153625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-48.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No11c5,000$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5355240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes75c4,115$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.764119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3979…f49ebacked No17c4,015$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.690%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes78c3,829$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.24047.5%19 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No20c3,687$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.88739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked No5c3,500$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No24c3,132$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.0419348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1726…9fc2backed Yes78c2,720$2,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.71070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No14c2,549$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4611848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No7c2,210$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.837740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No4c2,100$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked No1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No18c2,000$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4914940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Yes77c1,770$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No33c1,764$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.267338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d53…398bbacked Yes63c1,733$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+47.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57dc…a126backed No42c1,571$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes76c1,514$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.954332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked Yes77c1,487$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.23161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba2e…8227backed Yes60c1,430$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes62c1,325$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.682147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No11c1,153$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.398142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed No27c1,122$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43e6…a1ebbacked Yes80c1,038$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dbc…421dbacked No5c1,037$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.071612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes79c987.34$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.342412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No22c932.51$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f42…2af2backed No54c926.77$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No20c920.6$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.562240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc35d…7918backed Yes77c912.53$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.695100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes63c764.62$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6211646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes79c758.11$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.114216.7%7 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed Yes72c755.87$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.851457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No23c707.11$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda1b…cea3backed Yes59c699.79$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No10c674.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.168632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No17c661.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.461,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6b1…0cb9backed Yes78c603.53$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x626c…12a6backed Yes64c585.43$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes60c549.06$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.071346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…393bbacked Yes80c533.9$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No21c510.68$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.093917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed Yes78c500.8$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.343161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked No24c500.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.045444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes56c500$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.56124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No34c500$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16820446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No17c499.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+41.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No18c459$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.324731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Yes57c455.74$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.954346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No44c449.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.573438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x711e…2091backed No3c443.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick5cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No30c443.09$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8413556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes31c424.26$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.12128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5526…5f5cbacked Yes77c391.62$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No7c390.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.24332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe111…34b5backed No27c384.94$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ae…8072backed Yes58c362.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.621353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3b…dcddbacked No8c348.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes75c345.91$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.66346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes78c319.47$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.471136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+65.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No37c290.93$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.072142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No24c281.75$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4312736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No24c257.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.459557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No39c250.1$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.25170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes79c234.26$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.691353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b8…1f22backed No24c200.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked No21c200.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.733767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa178…2112backed No22c200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.82050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.