Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ee9c635a5535bb5a0c0160342c5e1cae6ed70d46c671e2fe6f1b19848264bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad16…e610backed Yes | 12c | 69,550$8,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,346 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 22c | 3,723$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.56 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 77c | 3,654$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.16 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 23c | 3,026$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.48 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 77c | 2,360$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.4 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 30c | 1,789$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.32 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,289$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ba…8586backed Yes | 1c | 1,267$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 67c | 905$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 840$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 742.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 72c | 499.99$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 458.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 72c | 454.38$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd477…6c04backed Yes | 24c | 400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 11c | 393.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 18c | 351.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 311.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 20c | 284.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 23c | 270$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 23c | 249.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…d3afbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e09…c03abacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…f01cbacked Yes | 13c | 199.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 13c | 187.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…ad95backed Yes | 22c | 148.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…5315backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 26c | 138$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 26c | 132.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…5683backed No | 79c | 132.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…e053backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…35febacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…a880backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…c3f0backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…c335backed No | 75c | 106.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…6a94backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 74c | 86.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c71…14a4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…74c8backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…8bcdbacked Yes | 24c | 54.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…7b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…f05cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…e392backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…2510backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1219…bd88backed No | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +112%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.