Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc29eaa0479eaf9e84dd4f1dd424679c18364627abfaa56fb6a71fba796b09872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $160,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $160,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d62…2af9backed Yes | 26c | 49,213$12,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,795.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59df…81bdbacked No | 74c | 49,213$36,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,795.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cf…711ebacked Yes | 50c | 21,311$10,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,655.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…5acebacked No | 50c | 21,311$10,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,655.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 35c | 5,066$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.43 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 68c | 1,988$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 1,787$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.26 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 69c | 648.19$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.12 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 642.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 26c | 606.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 78c | 544.55$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 76c | 500.2$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…cfddbacked Yes | 17c | 419.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 27c | 370.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 72c | 262.13$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 46c | 250$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 240.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…878abacked No | 58c | 238.33$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 72c | 232.52$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed No | 53c | 229.11$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 72c | 217.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 77c | 201$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 184.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 69c | 179.43$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 71c | 173.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78f2…51a1backed No | 73c | 150.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 22c | 147.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…926ebacked No | 79c | 128$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 120.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 75c | 101.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 51c | 92.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 46c | 76.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 73.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 61.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…ec33backed No | 51c | 52.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacc…392dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdced…4f73backed No | 59c | 22.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fd…860cbacked No | 69c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.