Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0ef74d237610795e52a1f316b77f470536aaa9a681fd5131b856a133762d652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…06a7backed Yes | 35c | 28,023$9,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,808.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072e…054cbacked No | 65c | 28,023$18,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,808.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 19c | 4,555$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.15 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 1,759$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 79c | 1,175$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.81 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 1,098$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 9c | 969.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 80c | 353.41$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 13c | 341$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e87abacked No | 80c | 314.98$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 75c | 285$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 239$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 227.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 73c | 219.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…8b51backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 74c | 175.76$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…59e7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 71c | 72.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 59.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…5f37backed No | 62c | 43.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed No | 73c | 40.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked No | 71c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…d8a6backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a0…25d3backed No | 70c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…5b8abacked No | 74c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.