Fed Rates · resolved market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x050da4fea09cec3031752ec312689670e7a442b70fb86489cb929cffbd53b900
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffe7…3cc1backed Yes | 37c | 29,622$10,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,812.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…ff77backed No | 64c | 29,622$18,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,812.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…d980backed Yes | 34c | 29,212$9,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,902.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2660…8ac6backed No | 66c | 29,198$19,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,898.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 56c | 4,218$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.91 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 4c | 4,029$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 52c | 3,340$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 1,530$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 50c | 1,254$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.65 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 67c | 1,237$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…a347backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +160.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…a356backed Yes | 1c | 968.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 34c | 893.4$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked No | 46c | 837.18$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 700.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 609.66$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.48 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 48c | 600$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 39c | 562.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 45c | 553.79$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.83 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 62c | 427.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked No | 64c | 273$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 259.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 22c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed No | 73c | 199.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 45c | 199.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 78c | 149$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba5…ec33backed No | 77c | 141.38$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa927…878abacked No | 32c | 116$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 67c | 112.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 69c | 109.93$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 107.96$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 100.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 30c | 87.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 80.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe9…0610backed No | 69c | 41.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacc…392dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 37c | 35.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 34c | 32.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed No | 64c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 68c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in April?this page
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in April?No won
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.