Us Politics · resolved market
FL-1 special election: Valimont (D) vs. Patronis (R)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc1145c8dc1c6bf41b83f94210b7b6554cad4c2c568ea6b072bded38fd3b908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patronisof Valimont, Patronis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $355,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Valimont | 2c | 137,407$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.58 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed Valimont | 2c | 97,792$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Valimont | 1c | 12,318$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Valimont | 1c | 8,740$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Valimont | 2c | 7,682$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.14 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…bb42backed Valimont | 2c | 5,568$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Valimont | 6c | 2,572$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d6…488abacked Valimont | 2c | 630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb7…73cbbacked Valimont | 3c | 553.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Valimont | 3c | 363$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.