Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump dance in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99c54abca94db60bd681238b969d45b9008c905ca9aa9514478b4de10a54b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 17,724$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.27 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,730$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 1c | 2,653$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 2c | 2,537$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a5…8949backed Yes | 12c | 1,752$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b1…4960backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbff…c4b3backed Yes | 10c | 1,463$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…0aabbacked Yes | 38c | 1,390$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 7c | 999.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 15c | 817.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.35 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 8c | 770$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 1c | 707.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 681.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 592.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf62…9656backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 7c | 522.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 17c | 391.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7aaabacked Yes | 28c | 388.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 12c | 311.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 23c | 134.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.