TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f69…9c7abacked No79c39,035$31,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,009.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c24,414$18,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,302.2669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes25c22,958$5,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,757.7819236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes28c21,838$6,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,174.719436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes20c21,446$4,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,386.363727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes23c15,176$3,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,521.6917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes24c7,545$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.0618745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes14c6,054$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.735514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes16c2,407$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.3628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed Yes22c2,278$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes34c2,023$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.734630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes28c1,985$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.482231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No66c1,825$1,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.9737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb626…2138backed Yes36c1,599$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.4960%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes62c1,564$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.162920.7%6 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes16c1,510$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.163537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,231$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.721,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes30c1,136$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.6419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No13c1,036$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.9813046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes13c1,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12812619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes18c982.59$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.652222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes33c914.79$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes9c850$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.34323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd79a…1e60backed Yes37c818.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes27c775.04$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.912330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No33c753.36$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.589641.7%40 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes1c752.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No13c683.32$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.392445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee97…ee69backed Yes22c645.36$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.381650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3472…d4f2backed Yes33c643.4$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aee…b919backed Yes2c579.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes19c523$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67cc…f69fbacked Yes22c467.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba9…1c24backed Yes14c433.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-73.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes64c420.07$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.13137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes36c417.44$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.345825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes30c388.67$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3525241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No65c383.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed No68c363.23$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.898100%8 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec01…6592backed No75c354.99$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.461353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes15c343$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.088229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c4c…3486backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e43…18a1backed No69c297.29$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes28c287.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked Yes38c260.95$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes23c255.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+53.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ea3…45cabacked Yes40c252.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes19c250$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.751631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes18c240$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.533953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes20c239.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.733627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes26c238.88$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.758226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes25c226.32$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.555433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes36c220$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.224040%16 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+82.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes19c212.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5710035%35 W · 65 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes39c210$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.98447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.652015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No9c143.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes23c142.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3636527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe68f…90a1backed Yes36c123.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c123.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda42…d348backed Yes63c118.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No45c114.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.428433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bed…4eb5backed Yes21c114.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02d…17e8backed No77c110$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.581172.7%8 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No54c109.7$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.628441.7%35 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00c0…c91ebacked No71c101.9$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.491050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.872722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.93351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bbc…799fbacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ac…5e85backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40d…1474backed Yes32c92.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8e…923fbacked No78c89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.86650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x780d…526cbacked Yes23c88.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes48c86.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.674233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes23c85.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fc…4ec6backed Yes64c75.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes38c74.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4724035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No15c67.98$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.610244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2067…605dbacked No80c66.75$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.553100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab24…8c8ebacked No72c60.12$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.971275%9 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7512736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6311…842fbacked Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c0…7e81backed Yes42c47.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes24c46.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0118322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked No74c42.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.023221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb317…b679backed Yes49c41.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes33c41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.457428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe9be…6252backed Yes29c39.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+73.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes73c28.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8115332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1446…939abacked Yes61c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb6…caffbacked Yes49c24.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.