Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4a3bb463ab3ad4d6ec3085b392b227e234049822f6714fdc7a6d44ada317ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $499,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $469,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98c8…1b65backed No | 43c | 40,297$17,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,969.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…348abacked Yes | 57c | 40,297$22,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,969.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…c818backed No | 40c | 36,885$14,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,131 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…8358backed Yes | 60c | 36,885$22,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,131 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdb…242cbacked No | 41c | 36,465$14,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,514.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…7082backed Yes | 59c | 36,465$21,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,514.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…874dbacked No | 43c | 29,898$12,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,041.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…fddcbacked Yes | 57c | 29,898$17,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,041.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…7ec5backed Yes | 60c | 28,547$17,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,128.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3b…a338backed No | 40c | 28,547$11,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,128.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…7b30backed Yes | 1c | 12,343$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 7c | 10,919$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.38 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,275$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 5c | 5,901$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,645$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 5,029$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,884$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.59 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,970$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed Yes | 3c | 3,623$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,583$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…90a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,308$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,736$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 39c | 2,646$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.47 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 60c | 2,287$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed Yes | 5c | 1,724$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 9c | 1,467$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,265$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…b919backed Yes | 1c | 1,135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 2c | 921$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…4eb5backed Yes | 4c | 830.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…45cabacked Yes | 10c | 816.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 4c | 625.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 67c | 525.75$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…f69fbacked Yes | 4c | 484.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 59c | 439$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 36c | 330.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.01 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes | 6c | 329.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 322$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 60c | 215$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…7ea9backed Yes | 61c | 164.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked No | 33c | 164.42$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 9c | 149.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…8650backed Yes | 65c | 144.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…1474backed Yes | 17c | 114.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 34c | 111.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 110.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked Yes | 59c | 67.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 59c | 66.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 44c | 65.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 22c | 56.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 47.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 70c | 44.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 57c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% before August?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% before August?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 45% before August?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.