MLB · resolved market
Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c9701b0fa40413d35db0ec243d3916afda2eecd13d304f34bf7f7e7da9550f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $228,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e57…5f66backed Yes | 27c | 48,673$13,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,141.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…dc3abacked No | 73c | 48,673$35,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,141.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…1bd8backed Yes | 32c | 47,155$15,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,089.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…c44ebacked No | 68c | 47,155$32,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,089.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 2,956$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 34c | 2,515$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.89 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 28c | 2,043$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 69c | 1,900$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.77 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 1,287$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.39 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 73c | 1,262$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.19 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 39c | 863.85$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.98 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 65c | 454$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 56c | 437.71$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.8 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 58c | 414$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 62c | 390$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 23c | 368$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.36 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 359$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 41c | 356.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 61c | 277$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 34c | 257.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.86 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 32c | 254.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 37c | 211.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.97 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 31c | 204.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 8c | 201.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 33c | 179.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…2bd1backed No | 22c | 140$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 64c | 138.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 35c | 113.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes | 11c | 108$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 100.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed Yes | 49c | 98.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 74c | 89.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 34c | 82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 50c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 28c | 69.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 55c | 65.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 30c | 61.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 35c | 57.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked No | 52c | 57.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 42c | 54.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…aaefbacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 42c | 49.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…4c14backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division?this page
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Oakland Athletics win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the AL West Division?Yes won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.