MLB · resolved market
Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f10682e83af9b6fc6b2c0b00e2d7bba832ee1340516a393c9efa6942b212b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $501,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d6…3a90backed Yes | 40c | 37,358$14,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,943.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…7cebbacked No | 60c | 37,358$22,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,943.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…5f66backed Yes | 44c | 32,511$14,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,304.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1405…de5ebacked No | 56c | 32,511$18,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,304.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…125dbacked No | 56c | 31,167$17,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,713.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…45edbacked Yes | 44c | 31,167$13,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,713.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…2d95backed No | 56c | 29,721$16,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,077.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…fb16backed Yes | 44c | 29,721$13,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,077.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb6…f761backed Yes | 38c | 29,109$11,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,061.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072e…054cbacked No | 62c | 29,109$18,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,061.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…cbacbacked No | 61c | 24,823$15,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,680.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7873…5acebacked Yes | 39c | 24,823$9,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,680.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…3734backed No | 56c | 21,756$12,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,572.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…4398backed Yes | 44c | 21,756$9,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,572.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44b…bea3backed Yes | 27c | 21,754$5,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,873.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4046…2febbacked No | 73c | 21,754$15,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,873.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,561$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 2,177$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.47 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 1,600$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 1,362$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.91 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 11c | 762$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 20c | 552.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 446.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…24abbacked Yes | 42c | 443.6$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 436.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 33c | 271$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 241$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 77c | 143.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 79c | 131$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 124.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 73.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 59c | 63.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 19c | 60.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 24c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…aaefbacked Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 69c | 49.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked No | 76c | 42.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…3895backed No | 58c | 40.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…3c14backed Yes | 46c | 34.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…7740backed No | 57c | 32.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 58c | 27.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 69c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division?this page
- Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Oakland Athletics win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the AL West Division?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.