MLB · resolved market
Will the Seattle Mariners win the AL West Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24ca7be375715118f41e7997b39df2ee7f09db92a15f12e4b6fe30adf48dad31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42ff…8477backed Yes | 47c | 35,821$16,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,985.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…d224backed No | 53c | 35,821$18,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,985.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 34c | 2,329$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.7 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,427$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,383$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.35 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,156$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 1,040$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.54 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 79c | 992.67$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.58 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 49c | 821.43$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…b980backed Yes | 24c | 701.05$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 33c | 650.54$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.23 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c3…973ebacked Yes | 34c | 595.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…a87bbacked Yes | 26c | 372.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 34c | 330.19$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…9aa0backed Yes | 38c | 282.15$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 22c | 265.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 78c | 243$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 228$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.23 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 57c | 219.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 33c | 168.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 39c | 155$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 23c | 106.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…f063backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 57c | 89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +293.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 32c | 83.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 55c | 82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9be…6252backed Yes | 27c | 77.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 44c | 69.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…0240backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 61.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…aaefbacked Yes | 39c | 53.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 40c | 32.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 79c | 17.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the AL West Division?this page
- Will the Houston Astros win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Oakland Athletics win the AL West Division?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.