TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$835,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$345,602

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $835,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c38,245$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.994440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes1c30,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1802227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes2c26,611$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.976149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x407a…d0d3backed Yes5c17,222$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+42.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed Yes0c16,621$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.89170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c13,684$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.141,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes1c12,466$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.081612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes1c11,563$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c4…acb8backed Yes0c10,402$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes5c10,045$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes2c10,032$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64e…9379backed Yes2c10,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c9,379$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.796883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2472…8d9bbacked Yes0c8,739$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c8,481$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes0c8,381$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…e904backed Yes1c7,190$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2447…e9f8backed Yes1c7,120$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9f…fb03backed Yes0c5,720$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…c307backed Yes0c5,462$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes3c5,398$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.664531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes0c5,043$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11b…44b0backed Yes0c4,023$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes3c3,596$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.221520%3 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0f8…6978backed Yes2c3,563$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b86…d7afbacked Yes2c3,447$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes2c3,243$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.021827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes1c3,240$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.88100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes1c3,120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.36100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc4…6a34backed Yes7c3,031$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+81.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd256…b945backed Yes4c2,836$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.493633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa444…a6fdbacked Yes0c2,828$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a94…714cbacked Yes6c2,752$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f35…4437backed Yes2c2,653$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.71315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+397.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2817…3a70backed Yes6c2,544$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+214.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x726d…8faabacked Yes0c2,503$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes7c2,439$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6718036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes1c2,317$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c2,288$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.181,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9680…d1d5backed Yes8c2,255$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.75520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+150.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeede…8a73backed Yes19c2,231$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c2,156$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.064766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e9…ef4dbacked Yes2c2,113$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes1c2,094$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.926836.8%25 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes1c1,680$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes1c1,560$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…547abacked Yes1c1,560$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc938…b8e2backed Yes2c1,485$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc4…d451backed Yes1c1,464$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+105.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357f…efffbacked Yes7c1,443$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.141010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f7…0ff1backed Yes12c1,433$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+636.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes1c1,320$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7290%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes11c1,290$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.33423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6974…1287backed Yes4c1,238$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.35728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6225…5eb6backed Yes1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f4…29c3backed Yes10c1,195$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes7c1,125$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.782222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc1…73d8backed Yes9c1,101$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+134.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes1c1,080$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes1c1,080$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b1…d9edbacked Yes1c1,080$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51b4…c06abacked Yes1c1,080$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes1c1,080$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes1c1,080$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.470%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa654…29b1backed Yes7c1,016$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b83…f232backed Yes1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x830c…d9a9backed Yes8c985.12$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed Yes6c969.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.891421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes1c960$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f49…af16backed Yes1c960$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes8c920.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5714947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes1c911.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8834726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf52…da30backed Yes9c868.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d23…cba1backed Yes2c852.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes24c753.8$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.558354.2%45 W · 38 L+18.2wins+0.22per pick32cpaid+66.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No76c753.8$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5517037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4000…c7debacked Yes1c720$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…92dabacked Yes6c680$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c610$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.912939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes11c585.16$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3330233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes2c541$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab32…98bcbacked Yes7c509.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.661844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…e8cfbacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ea…9eb4backed Yes5c485.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c71…23dcbacked Yes5c435.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Yes7c421.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.03425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+54.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes21c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8219957.3%114 W · 85 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446328.6%18 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185e…7af6backed Yes6c383.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7f…65bfbacked Yes8c360.65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c321.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b5…2557backed Yes7c316.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe23…c1dcbacked Yes9c296.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+133.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes5c281.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes6c250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7af…a79ebacked Yes11c234.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ab…a766backed Yes9c217.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-82%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee97…ee69backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.