Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c064cca193052c93b50e9a1ef319838cf04a2d48ad9073444be273af43a46be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $798,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $683,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $798,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa355…b1fabacked No | 62c | 61,155$37,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,238.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…d5c8backed Yes | 38c | 61,145$23,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,235.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 16c | 38,187$6,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,165.58 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 12c | 26,030$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.94 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 22c | 22,432$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 19,985$4,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.39 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 7c | 17,934$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.76 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 4c | 15,520$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.08 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 7c | 11,273$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.68 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 17c | 10,811$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 20c | 10,586$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,091.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…0545backed Yes | 11c | 10,427$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d7…6932backed Yes | 15c | 10,214$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 10c | 9,716$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.88 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 7c | 9,096$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 13c | 8,848$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 21c | 8,211$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.47 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 10c | 7,841$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.45 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 14c | 7,660$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 14c | 7,636$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.29 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…f4efbacked Yes | 14c | 7,013$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 13c | 6,975$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.8 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bf…d36abacked Yes | 17c | 6,542$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…6919backed Yes | 19c | 6,310$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed Yes | 17c | 6,007$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 22c | 6,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed Yes | 9c | 6,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0000backed Yes | 13c | 5,817$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 15c | 5,682$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.8 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 23c | 5,183$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.82 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 16c | 5,005$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.88 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 4,911$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.05 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,844$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 16c | 4,146$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed Yes | 16c | 4,061$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 10c | 4,000$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 77c | 3,992$3,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.31 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 78c | 3,683$2,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.87 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 80c | 3,598$2,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 3,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 19c | 3,160$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.09 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…9536backed Yes | 10c | 3,138$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d41…271abacked Yes | 13c | 3,063$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 10c | 3,018$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.96 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 3,011$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 28c | 2,804$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.78 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 19c | 2,571$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 14c | 2,512$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 15c | 2,432$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 2,296$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…0edcbacked Yes | 20c | 2,259$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 2,235$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.81 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 9c | 2,159$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 15c | 2,026$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.84 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 8c | 2,001$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 17c | 1,900$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,800$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,777$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 7c | 1,760$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x899f…0bd6backed Yes | 10c | 1,750$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a15…6972backed Yes | 9c | 1,743$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 18c | 1,570$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb749…5246backed Yes | 20c | 1,553$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed Yes | 21c | 1,543$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 18c | 1,514$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 10c | 1,484$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,466$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 71c | 1,450$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.21 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 11c | 1,410$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 14c | 1,393$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 14c | 1,390$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 22c | 1,369$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 80c | 1,252$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.56 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…f2c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,228$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,215$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 12c | 1,121$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,105$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed No | 78c | 1,077$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,065$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 17c | 1,009$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 16c | 1,005$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…df31backed Yes | 16c | 963.94$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 9c | 953$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 10c | 908.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…17bdbacked No | 74c | 900$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 18c | 873.79$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…0140backed Yes | 36c | 841.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…892cbacked Yes | 5c | 826$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…fcb0backed Yes | 5c | 807.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 76c | 725.35$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 6c | 717.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 9c | 704.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c3…8eb9backed Yes | 17c | 694.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…bf9dbacked No | 73c | 685$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 75c | 664.8$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.