MLB · resolved market
Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2672a43694c4c7bc13c54da2fd762f6891a1d40a985c660fd7492c9ff03d2d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 13c | 3,675$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.84 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 20c | 1,954$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.47 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…9686backed Yes | 25c | 1,073$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 5c | 599.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 13c | 525.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed Yes | 26c | 323.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 265.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 24c | 259.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 17c | 255.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdd…d370backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 162.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…e006backed Yes | 27c | 147.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 138.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…9563backed Yes | 30c | 132.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 23c | 121.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…1cedbacked Yes | 33c | 121.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee97…ee69backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?this page
- Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in Home Runs?Yes won
- Will Eugenio Suárez lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Pete Alonso lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.