MLB · resolved market
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c59776ab3f900bd6da1edd267851877a276cbc6eede3d931ee39dc2b5b58fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf99a…bc0bbacked No | 55c | 41,683$22,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,757.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…d224backed Yes | 45c | 41,683$18,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,757.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…6ac2backed No | 57c | 34,418$19,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,799.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…64aabacked Yes | 43c | 34,418$14,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,799.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…cbacbacked Yes | 46c | 32,425$14,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,915.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…7214backed No | 54c | 32,425$17,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,915.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 30c | 1,232$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.06 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 3c | 601$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 373.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 363.16$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…c791backed Yes | 44c | 229.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Yes | 48c | 209.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 59c | 99.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 65.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…f095backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 61c | 56.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bc…72c8backed Yes | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…6b88backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?this page
- Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in Home Runs?Yes won
- Will Eugenio Suárez lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Pete Alonso lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.