MLB · resolved market
Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in Home Runs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e60f427dbf2cc1a550f5ee09150c5f170926fbcd6c0e9c27e0da7970732b779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Yes | 23c | 3,546$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.58 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 32c | 2,724$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,416$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 13c | 1,172$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 540.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 2c | 506.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 288$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 22c | 271.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…ff91backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 177.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 16c | 120.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…8702backed Yes | 40c | 101.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…5786backed Yes | 24c | 96.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 28c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyle Schwarber lead the MLB in Home Runs?this page
- Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Cal Raleigh lead the MLB in Home Runs?Yes won
- Will Eugenio Suárez lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Pete Alonso lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
- Will Shohei Ohtani lead the MLB in Home Runs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.