Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7256215710c1498dcd64085cda88a864a50bcfc43a1a401f122e405e94af9e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $682,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $808,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 20c | 250,924$50,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,782.24 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 80c | 92,141$73,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,750.56 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 80c | 49,831$39,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,093.84 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 78c | 45,500$35,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,084.08 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa853…da85backed No | 77c | 25,007$19,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,834.97 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7909…de2ebacked Yes | 21c | 23,025$4,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,793.01 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ae…15e0backed Yes | 26c | 18,995$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 15c | 13,005$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.38 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac6…c0e2backed Yes | 19c | 7,493$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,233$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.66 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 73c | 7,077$5,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.97 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 77c | 5,796$4,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.79 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20bd…4845backed No | 74c | 5,178$3,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…c6d2backed Yes | 14c | 3,409$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 73c | 3,100$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 7c | 2,778$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 76c | 2,662$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,524$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.19 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,223$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,062$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.59 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d28…04f7backed Yes | 5c | 2,011$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 12c | 1,627$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…fe13backed Yes | 14c | 1,610$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc7…7e20backed Yes | 12c | 1,104$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…3260backed No | 73c | 959.63$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 68cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd0…64e9backed Yes | 33c | 919.53$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 9c | 850$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5af…c216backed Yes | 2c | 837$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9c…3421backed Yes | 30c | 822.58$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 11c | 818.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…c343backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 80c | 726.59$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ea…60c2backed No | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bb…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 644$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 13c | 600.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 10c | 551.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2f…fc22backed Yes | 3c | 434$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee64…c04ebacked No | 67c | 417.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…0a00backed No | 73c | 359.01$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8414…8689backed Yes | 11c | 350$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1d…e713backed Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 72c | 319.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…65bebacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 19c | 276.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 260$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…1472backed Yes | 34c | 237.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 77c | 235$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 71c | 219.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…2afbbacked Yes | 29c | 206.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44e0…baedbacked No | 75c | 199.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 197.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 77c | 160.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 16c | 154$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 13c | 148$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68f9…d046backed No | 72c | 139.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…b618backed Yes | 32c | 110.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x820c…7a8cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…1c7bbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…60babacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…654bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked No | 79c | 39.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ced…43a8backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…e9b0backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…3fb2backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…ae9bbacked No | 71c | 24.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…d7a6backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…78cdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6c…353bbacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.