Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1d37e59f14eeea1362efb9905dcae5b84cb95ae04e934049083757d285143e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $308,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $346,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 9c | 51,725$4,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,403.65 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 16c | 34,152$5,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,341.7 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 1c | 31,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 14,000$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.65 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 45c | 11,999$5,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,439.6 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.99 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 58c | 6,452$3,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.76 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 9c | 4,335$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.4 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d5…72ffbacked Yes | 19c | 3,797$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 34c | 3,752$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,296$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.91 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 26cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 20c | 1,917$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.42 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked No | 74c | 1,800$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.99 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 33c | 1,718$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.87 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 70c | 1,570$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.93 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 7c | 1,410$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 66c | 1,242$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.14 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 73c | 1,156$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.71 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 25c | 887.75$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 76c | 794.57$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 21c | 774.36$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…a25ebacked No | 68c | 738.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked No | 56c | 611.38$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.02 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe779…87e0backed No | 69c | 600$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 47c | 595.74$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.74 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…a724backed Yes | 17c | 594.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 15c | 563.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 19c | 525$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 496.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…b95dbacked No | 77c | 368$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…2e4cbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed No | 74c | 245.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +58%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaa…3ca3backed No | 64c | 181.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…2afbbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 64c | 156.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…b618backed Yes | 60c | 133.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 43c | 125.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02df…22e1backed Yes | 16c | 121.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Yes | 69c | 92.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 64 | 68.8%44 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ca9bbacked Yes | 43c | 80.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1d…e713backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 45c | 65.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…99a1backed Yes | 26c | 65.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…1ea8backed Yes | 40c | 61.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…7387backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…2357backed Yes | 56c | 51.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…3beebacked No | 51c | 44.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…6d82backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2067…6affbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a70…1b59backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ba…596cbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c1e7backed No | 75c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…4097backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb255…b38fbacked No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7af4backed No | 62c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe685…24f6backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44db…e66fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.