Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd097482f078822ebc8051ebbd11ba4b275a90aaa586a437e9aa81f3c30f94a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ae…15e0backed Yes | 24c | 14,002$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 67c | 13,927$9,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,289.87 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,829$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 17c | 3,383$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.97 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 3,334$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…c568backed No | 39c | 2,864$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.33 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed No | 29c | 2,161$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.33 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed Yes | 39c | 2,121$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.68 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked No | 71c | 830$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 13c | 807.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 69c | 611.69$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.88 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 75c | 550$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed No | 30c | 390$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…a1d8backed No | 71c | 338.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…2e4cbacked Yes | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 42c | 308.88$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…a0a1backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 9c | 286.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed No | 66c | 265.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…0a00backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…a724backed Yes | 32c | 253.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 68c | 123.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 21c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c451backed Yes | 17c | 118.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…83fabacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674e…5a8cbacked No | 79c | 75.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…ac00backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…7387backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 68c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd816…6d71backed No | 72c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…1ea8backed Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.