Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c58415ad09af310e60f0341d1ce7bb15dfa16493f132ab97c81cbf47290c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 10c | 210,806$21,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,577.11 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc7…7e20backed Yes | 7c | 10,100$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,289$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.14 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac6…c0e2backed Yes | 8c | 6,156$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a03…171abacked Yes | 15c | 4,850$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 8c | 3,322$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 10c | 1,920$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 9c | 933.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bd…8e0ebacked Yes | 9c | 530.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…6a7cbacked Yes | 14c | 506.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9c…3421backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 9c | 410.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…4974backed Yes | 12c | 402$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 5c | 330$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…0f84backed Yes | 4c | 301.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…9dbebacked Yes | 12c | 279$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…5883backed Yes | 12c | 247$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 5c | 213$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e4…068bbacked Yes | 6c | 205.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 130.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7b…11d4backed Yes | 12c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…b618backed Yes | 12c | 100.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3624…69d4backed Yes | 13c | 78.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.