Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05717eba8a793fbc94e3d7b7f5300d3fa097d54be76cc5c2b1e392648b4940aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb68a…c568backed Yes | 19c | 20,818$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,881.4 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 44c | 6,352$2,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.57 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked No | 71c | 6,090$4,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.35 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…bfe8backed No | 57c | 4,217$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.75 | 124 | 31.5%39 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 76c | 3,526$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.26 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…9b49backed No | 66c | 2,346$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 73c | 1,700$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 80c | 1,415$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.85 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…da78backed Yes | 34c | 883.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.19 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed No | 75c | 692.37$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 50c | 367.83$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…ae44backed Yes | 67c | 358.21$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 72c | 285.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…bc00backed Yes | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 62c | 74.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…5a00backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf44f…cd17backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb9…44f5backed Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 48c | 49.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 49.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 70c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…1ea8backed No | 71c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…23f7backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…767ebacked No | 61c | 16.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in August?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?No won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in August?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.00 in August?No won
- Will XRP reach $5.40 in August?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.