Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf468f8f181c3d02fd9614fceed3b7488ea5a0f90e921b18231cc8127ca77ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa20b…34dcbacked No | 4c | 19,458$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3d6abacked No | 12c | 12,378$1,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…ad2abacked No | 16c | 10,539$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 7,224$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,673$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…74b2backed No | 11c | 6,183$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 21c | 2,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…e207backed No | 13c | 1,341$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…a5f8backed No | 20c | 1,253$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…65e2backed No | 20c | 1,128$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 12c | 1,093$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 975.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 11c | 914.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…8da6backed No | 13c | 773.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…afe7backed No | 14c | 721.12$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed No | 14c | 717.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…d075backed No | 12c | 675.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +165.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 21c | 600.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked No | 11c | 567.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 14c | 551.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 18c | 507.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5272…dd1ebacked No | 11c | 434.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…467fbacked No | 17c | 383.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b42…5b81backed No | 13c | 379.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…b954backed No | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b3…310ebacked No | 12c | 351.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed No | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 65c | 260$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed No | 8c | 236$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…115fbacked No | 9c | 218.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 10c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…8931backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 12c | 184.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 14c | 162.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…36e9backed No | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…e41abacked No | 19c | 156.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked No | 19c | 144$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…7598backed No | 14c | 143.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked No | 11c | 138.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked No | 17c | 125.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…ad8bbacked No | 21c | 124.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29a…7bfbbacked No | 13c | 119.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…bd27backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 21c | 105.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…56d3backed No | 15c | 102.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb68…549cbacked No | 20c | 98.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 12c | 86.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…6572backed No | 14c | 71.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…e247backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.