Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 17 than day before?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ceb3579fb25e5b4fe592163bee0b7f478775617f9af7af5fc533d683aabef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 526.55$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…166bbacked Yes | 51c | 508$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 51c | 457.76$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 46c | 174.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 49c | 89.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 62c | 80.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…2698backed Yes | 22c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 62.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…87bdbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 55.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 50c | 53.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50c…f4bbbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…0e95backed Yes | 51c | 26.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.